Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das has pitched for policy support from all sides -- fiscal, monetary and sectoral -- to nurture recovery of the economy hit by the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. The dent on economic activity due to the second wave of the pandemic during April-May necessitated continuation of monetary measures to support the process of economic recovery to make it durable, Das had said while participating in the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) earlier in the month. "Overall, the second wave of COVID-19 has altered the near-term outlook, and policy support from all sides - fiscal, monetary and sectoral - is required to nurture recovery and expedite return to normalcy," Das said, as per the minutes of the meeting released on Friday.
They have also called for giving cash to the poor, so that demand is generated in the economy.
The banking sector is set to move at a fast pace from hereon.
Wednesday's was the first MPC meeting that had a dissent note.
M V Subramanian says there is an imperative need for collective responsibility to tackle inflation, prices and availability of essential commodities, and not rely on inflation targeting alone.
'Some of the astounding proposals, if translated into statutory provisions, would be suicidal.' 'This would not be a wonder cure for increasing insurance penetration and only result in mushrooming growth of players like paan kiosks with deleterious consequences.'
What stood out in his 15-year journey as a member of the political executive at the Centre was his glowing record as India's most successful and effective finance minister. Both as prime minister and finance minister, he understood the importance of gradualism, except when the economy or the polity was in a crisis.
Slowdown in industrial production notwithstanding, a marginal increase in inflation raised the clamour for another round of rate cut by the Reserve Bank on April 4 to boost economic activity.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said the country is at the doorstep of economic revival on the back of accommodative monetary and fiscal policies being pursued by the central bank and the government.
Financial markets are under stress and require steps by the central bank for market stability and revival of economic growth, he said while announcing the decisions taken by the Monetary Policy Committee in Mumbai.
Analysts are divided on their retail price inflation forecast, with some saying the first quarter numbers will overshoot the RBI target by as much as 60 bps while others are softer in their estimate. Consumer price inflation retreated from its 15-month peak of 7.4 per cent in July to 6.8 per cent in August, much lower than the market expectations, despite vegetable prices remaining elevated at 26.1 per cent. Food inflation eased to 9.9 per cent from 11.5 per cent, led by some cooling of inflation in vegetables, cereals, pulses and milk.
Given the pressure from India Inc and the banking fraternity, it is surmised that the portfolio rejig will take place before April.
There is a near consensus that at least a 25 basis points cut, if not 50, can be expected in the June policy.
Headed by Urjit Patel, MPC for the fourth straight time kept the repo rate unchanged, at which it lends to the banks, at 6.25 per cent. The reverse repo, at which RBI borrows, will be 6 per cent.
Are we adopting an idea whose time has come and gone? My feeling is, yes, says ex-banker C Joseph Chacko in the fourth article of the series on inflation targeting.
Equity indices made an emphatic comeback on Friday after falling for seven straight sessions after the RBI hiked interest rates by 50 basis points on expected lines and projected inflation coming under control from January next year. A strong recovery in the rupee added to the momentum, traders said. Overcoming a wobbly start, the 30-share BSE Sensex soared 1,016.96 points or 1.80 per cent to settle at 57,426.92. During the day, it rallied 1,312.67 points or 2.32 per cent to 57,722.63.
investors will look to the new governor to continue the banking sector clean-up with the same urgency as Mr Rajan, who was targeting fully cleaned-up and provisioned balance sheets by March 2017
The wholesale price-based inflation accelerated to a record high of 12.94 per cent in May, on rising prices of crude oil and manufactured goods. Low base effect also contributed to the spike in WPI inflation in May 2021. In May 2020, WPI inflation was at (-) 3.37 per cent. This is the fifth straight month of uptick seen in the wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation. In April, 2021, WPI inflation hit double digit at 10.49 per cent. "The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, was 12.94 per cent for the month of May, 2021 (over May, 2020) as compared to (-) 3.37 per cent in May 2020.
Mortgage lender HDFC Ltd on Wednesday announced an increase in its benchmark lending rate by 5 basis points (bps), a move that will make loans dearer for both existing and new borrowers. This is the third hike effected by HDFC in the last one month. "HDFC increases its Retail Prime Lending Rate (RPLR) on housing loans, on which its Adjustable Rate Home Loans (ARHL) are benchmarked, by 5 basis points, with effect from June 1, 2022," the housing finance company said in a statement.
Shaktikanta Das is a master of the finest balancing act who listens to all but takes his own decisions, discovers Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The government should not go in for an 'aggressive fiscal consolidation' in the upcoming Budget as global risks have not abated, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Wednesday. Goyal further said subsidies are expected to come down as food and energy inflation moderates. WPI inflation in food articles in November was 1.07 per cent against 8.33 per cent in the previous month.
However, the RBI is still not in a mood to issue an OMO calendar, which was the expectation in some sections of the market.
Financials emerged as the top gainers while auto shares rallied on robust September sales
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday hiked key benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent, citing sticky core inflation. This is the sixth time interest rate has been hiked by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) since May last year, taking the total quantum of hike to 250 basis points. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) by a majority decided to raise the policy repo rate by 25 basis points and keep a 'strong vigil' on inflation outlook.
Many analysts over the past week have said the RBI has legroom to cut rates to the tune of 65 bps by June and some like Barclays and BofA have also spoken about the likelihood of an inter-meeting cut.
The bigger worry is that its effects could linger well into the next financial year.
The Reserve Bank remains laser-focused to bring back retail inflation to 4 per cent over a period of time in a non-disruptive manner, Governor Shaktikanta Das stressed while voting for status quo in interest rates, as per minutes of the October policy meeting released on Friday. The central bank has been mandated by the government to ensure the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation is at 4 per cent, with a band of 2 per cent on either side. The retail inflation, which was above 6 per cent during May and June, has started moving down and stood at 4.35 per cent in September.
Ajay Banga was on Wednesday appointed the next president of the World Bank, becoming the first-ever Indian-American to head the global financial institution which said it looks forward to working with him at a time when it's tackling the toughest development challenges facing developing countries. "The executive directors of the World Bank today selected Ajay Banga as president of the World Bank for a five-year term beginning June 2, 2023," the bank said in a press statement. In February, President Joe Biden announced that the US would be nominating Banga, 63, to lead the World Bank because he is "well equipped" to lead the global institution at "this critical moment in history."
A combination of farm loan debt waivers by state governments and the implementation of the pay commission award could entail some fiscal slippages and pose a risk to inflation
The resignation is sure to create more political firestorms for the government as it comes on the eve of the winter session of Parliament where the Opposition has already made it clear to the treasury benches that infringing on the RBI autonomy would be a big talking point for them.
India has been relatively insulated from the severe headwinds in the West. However, with a third of the global economy expected to slip into recession in calendar year 2023, the impact will strongly be felt on India's exports and trade economy, leading economists said in a panel discussion at the Business Standard BFSI Insight Summit in Mumbai on Wednesday. The panel comprised former Reserve Bank of India executive director and former Monetary Policy Committee member Mridul Saggar, State Bank of India Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Citibank India Chief Economist Samiran Chakraborty, ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar, and IndusInd Bank Chief Economist Gaurav Kapoor. The topic of the panel discussion was No recession in sight: Is India decoupled from developed economies?
If this turns into reality, India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be the lowest since 2012-13, which could severely hit job creation and income growth in the near term.
'He is positive and likes to get work done,' is how a retired bureaucrat described him. 'I assume he will push the reform agenda with strength.'
'India is not so distant from years of high and entrenched inflationary expectations that it should start trying to play games with the economy the way the West's central bankers think they are entitled to,' argues Mihir S Sharma.
India's economy will do well once vaccination reaches a critical mass as pent up demand, global recovery and easy financial conditions will boost activities, RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Ashima Goyal said on Tuesday.
RBI also retained its GDP growth forecast at 7.6 per cent
Coal India topped the losers' list in the Sensex pack on Tuesday, falling 2.36 per cent, followed by Bharti Airtel at 2.16 per cent.
'They can transition from short to long-duration funds when the yield curve normalises.'
Services sector activities improved further and touched a five-month high in April driven by a surge in incoming new work orders that boosted business activity and supported a renewed increase in employment, according to a survey. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index jumped to 57.9 in April, from 53.6 in March, highlighting a sharp rate of expansion that was the fastest since last November amid mounting price pressures. For the ninth straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output.
'There are occasions when the prices of individual items like food raise inflation; then supply-side measures must be taken.' 'But if there is continued inflation, it means liquidity is aggravating the situation.'
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